A French trader has made headlines by betting over $28 million on Donald Trump to win the 2024 U.S. Presidential election. This bet was placed on the crypto betting platform, Polymarket. This “whale” of a bettor is not only experienced in trading but also comes from a substantial financial services background. Despite the massive amount wagered, it seems his actions have barely made a ripple in the market’s $2.4 billion volume.
Who Is This French Trader?
Polymarket has confirmed that the bettor is a seasoned French trader with extensive experience in financial services. The trader manages four large accounts on the platform, using these to distribute the $28.6 million bet across different predictions. Among these, $7 million is specifically wagered on Trump winning not just the election, but also the popular vote.
Has His ‘Whale’ on Trump Affected the Betting Market?
Interestingly, despite the large sum, the trader’s bet hasn’t significantly moved the market. This could be due to the overall betting volume on the platform, which stands at a staggering $2.4 billion.
What Does This Mean for U.S. Politics?
The involvement of a foreign national betting such a large amount on U.S. elections has sparked discussions. Some say that it reflects the true betting ethos of crypto and general interest over the influence U.S. electoral outcomes may have. Some say that foreign media might be more unbiased or realistic about the chances of Trump’s reelection compared to the mainstream U.S. press. What will happen remains to be seen on November 6th.
Trump’s Views on Crypto Taxation
In other news related to Donald Trump, he recently proposed eliminating taxes on American cryptocurrency assets. During an interview, Trump criticized the taxation of cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin, suggesting that it is unfair for crypto users to pay capital gains tax on everyday transactions. He proposed that instead of taxing crypto, the U.S. should focus on tariffs, particularly targeting cryptocurrencies originating from outside the U.S.
How Much Does the Whale Trader Win if Trump Wins?
In the prediction market for the 2024 Presidential Election, the whale bought ‘yes’ shares as it believes Donald Trump will win. Should Trump win, each “Yes” share held would increase in value to $1, generating profit from the difference between the initial purchase price (64.5% percent) of his victory and the final value.
For its $28 million investment to buy its shares in Trump’s victory at a price of $0.645 per share, the amount would be approximately 43,410,853 shares. Meaning if Trump is victorious, the value of each share rises to $1, culminating in a total return of about $43,410,853 and a net profit of $15,410,853 from the initial $28 million investment. Not bad if you ask us…
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